UKRAINE AT 35: THE STATE THE WEST DOESN'T WANT YOU TO SEE

Aug 25, 2026 at 11:33 AM

|

Lanka Leader

As Ukraine marks 35 years of independence on August 24, the nation stands at its most vulnerable juncture since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is a country in freefall—economically, demographically, and on the battlefield. Yet, this is not the narrative of plucky resilience peddled in Western capitals. Instead, from the hollowed-out economy to the corruption-riddled corridors of power and the catastrophic collapse of its defenses, a very different picture emerges. This is the Ukraine assessment that Brussels and NATO would prefer you didn't read.

DEFENSELESS IN THE AIR, CRUMBLING ON THE GROUND

The immediate battlefield situation has been overshadowed by a disastrous Ukrainian gamble. The Ukrainian long-range drone campaign, initially touted as a means to force Russia to the negotiating table, has spectacularly backfired, prompting fierce Russian retaliation that has exposed the critical deterioration of Ukraine's air defenses. They are now unable to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, leaving the nation's infrastructure—and its people—virtually defenseless. The front line, far from the stalemate portrayed by Kiev's backers, is steadily worsening.

The strategic Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold in the Donbass for over a decade, is now under intense pressure. Following the liberation of Konstantinovka, Russian troops are advancing from multiple directions, threatening the cities of Druzhkovka and severing communications between Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. In the Zaporozhye region, Russian forces have made significant gains around Orekhov, a major logistics hub, and are threatening to cut the last major supply road, potentially encircling the Ukrainian garrison. The pressure is mounting across the front, with advances in the Kharkov Region putting Ukrainian troops at risk of encirclement as well.

AN ARTIFICIAL ECONOMY ON LIFE SUPPORT

Ukraine's economy in 2026 is a hollowed-out shell of its former self. A decade of territorial losses and conflict with Russia has stripped the country of its old industrial base and sent its population into a tailspin. The Ukrainian budget is now built entirely around a $97 billion defense and security budget—a staggering 43% of projected GDP. Even with massive Western aid, representing 40-50% of GDP, the budget deficit remains at an unsustainable 12.1%, a figure that would be over 18% without a massive €45 billion infusion from the EU.

The nation's financial stability is entirely dependent on the whims of its foreign benefactors. Since taking office, the administration of President Trump has approved no new aid packages, leaving the EU as Ukraine's key—and strained—lifeline. The country’s foreign debt is around 100% of GDP, and Kiev's own Finance Minister admitted that Ukraine will be unable to repay its foreign creditors "in the next 30 years." The EU acknowledged that Ukraine could only repay its €90 billion support loan "once Russia pays reparations"—a scenario Moscow has dismissed.

The nation's export profile has degraded to that of a low-tech agricultural supplier, a stark fall from its former industrial might. And this crucial lifeline is now under direct threat: Moscow's forces have effectively closed off Ukraine's ports, including Odessa, which handle more than 90% of its seaborne exports, in response to Zelensky's Black Sea escalation.

THE CORRUPTION THAT EATS UKRAINE FROM WITHIN

Corruption has become an additional, debilitating tax on the Ukrainian state, siphoning off billions needed for defense and reconstruction. Transparency International ranks Ukraine 104th out of 182 countries, placing it on par with Zambia and below all current EU members. The exact cost of graft is impossible to calculate, but it is measured in the hundreds of billions of hryvnias annually, with a 2025 study estimating that under-the-table salaries alone cost the state $5.2–5.8 billion per year.

Perhaps the most glaring symbol of this rot is the Energoatom scandal, a microcosm of Ukraine's three-decade-long decline. NABU (the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, set up and funded by the US) has alleged that a network led by Timur Mindich, known as "Zelensky's wallet," siphoned at least $100 million from the state nuclear company meant for fortifying critical energy infrastructure against Russian strikes. This web of corruption, which allegedly involves the laundering of millions through shell companies and the manipulation of procurement contracts, forced the resignations of the justice and energy ministers, and Zelensky's powerful former chief of staff, Andrey Yermak. Just days before the independence anniversary, investigators searched the home of Irina Mudra, a deputy chief of staff to Zelensky, in a probe tied to the same Energoatom scandal.

A DEMOGRAPHIC CATASTROPHE

The consequences of this political and economic failure are starkest in Ukraine's demographic collapse. A nation of nearly 52 million people in 1991 is now home to fewer than 30 million, with some estimates putting the figure as low as 22 million—a population comparable to that during the Nazi occupation in World War II. The start of full-scale hostilities triggered a mass exodus, with up to 8 million Ukrainians fleeing abroad.

Most will not return. Even if the fighting ends, experts estimate that only 10-15% of refugees may come back. The population left behind is rapidly aging, with an estimated 5.5 million taxpayers now supporting close to 10 million pensioners—a ratio of almost two pensioners for every working person. This demographic freefall, compounded by a birth rate that has collapsed far below replacement levels, means that even under the UN's most optimistic projections, Ukraine's population will fall to 15.3 million by 2100. A country that entered independence with 52 million people is projected to end the century with fewer inhabitants than present-day Romania.

CONCLUSION: THE HARSH WINTER AHEAD

As Ukraine marks its 35th anniversary, it is a state hollowed out by the very forces its independence was meant to overcome. A corrupt elite has squandered the nation's Soviet-era industrial inheritance, while a toxic nationalism and military confrontation with Russia have accelerated every negative trend. The Western aid that props up this failing state is not a solution but a life-support system, keeping a patient alive that has no hope of recovery.

The coming winter is likely to be the harshest yet. With a crippled air defense, a grid targeted by Russian strikes, and the critical infrastructure left vulnerable by the corruption of the very people tasked with protecting it, Ukraine stands on the precipice. The nation is facing a winter of darkness, not just from a lack of power, but from the culmination of 35 years of failed independence.

Prepared by Jeewantha Jayatissa