America’s Defeat Is Near: Why Can’t the US Win the War with Iran?

Aug 23, 2026 at 08:22 AM

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Lanka Leader

The conflict between the United States and Iran has by now become a series of daily bombing raids and retaliatory attacks. In this situation, the rulers of states possessing the world’s major economies, as well as ordinary people, are holding their breath and watching to see what happens next. However, the war that the United States launched in February as a “shock and awe” campaign has ultimately transformed into a stalemate, raising a crucial question: How did the world’s sole superpower reach this situation?

The answer is that it was the result of a catastrophic miscalculation and a series of failed strategies. Accordingly, he points out that there is no viable path left for the United States to achieve victory. The United States is playing a losing hand against its enemy, and it now appears that, according to the United States, its supposedly weak enemy is not only determined to fight to the end, but is also prepared to do so.

A Bizarre Idea

The United States built its aggressive war on flawed intelligence and excessively optimistic assumptions. Israeli officials, particularly Mossad chief David Barnea and Prime Minister Netanyahu, convinced the American administration that a rapid “shock and awe”-based campaign could decapitate the Iranian regime, bring the Iranians to the negotiating table, and force them to submit on issues ranging from their nuclear program to their support for regional allies.

Accordingly, there was no sound strategic reason to believe that the US-Israeli operation, based on a bizarre idea, would achieve victory at the outset, and in fact, their strategy and tactics did not work.

The immediate failure of the air campaign is only part of the story. The course of the conflict merely symbolizes the failure of a repeated strategy. The massive initial strategic bombing campaign targeting Iranian leaders was abandoned after 40 days, when it became clear that Iran’s resolve could not be broken. Subsequently, the selected naval blockade was also lifted, which clearly ended with the memorandum of understanding, referred to as a “document of surrender,” signed by President Trump on June 17.

The “Tit-for-Tat” Trap

Although the agreement signed by both sides on June 17 provided an opportunity to end the war, the cessation of hostilities lasted only a very short time. Due to a dispute over the interpretation of a provision concerning control of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump reinstated the blockade, and in response, Iran also reinstated its blockade. The result is the current exchange of limited “tit-for-tat” attacks.

Accordingly, it appears that limited attacks are less likely to succeed than a full-scale bombing campaign. If a massive air campaign and blockade could not bring Iran to its knees, the question before the world is how a series of smaller retaliatory attacks could do so.

According to all the above factors, the Iranians are currently winning. It appears that the Iranians are inflicting greater damage on US assets than the United States is inflicting on Iranian assets. Even though the attacks may constitute a balanced situation of tit-for-tat exchanges, it is clear that the strategic situation remains unchanged.

No Ground Option

The idea of a US ground invasion must be dismissed as something that cannot be initiated, as is often suggested in conflicts of this nature. The number of American “trigger pullers,” or troops directly engaged in combat, stationed in the Middle East is less than 10,000, and it is clear that assuming a figure of around 6,000 is a more realistic estimate. Accordingly, even a child can understand that it would be ridiculous for the United States to talk about invading Iran with 6,000 soldiers, given Iran’s population of 93 million, its formidable military capabilities, and its difficult terrain.

The Sword of Economic Punishment

The core of the conflict now revolves around a focus on economic coercion. There is no question that the United States can inflict significant damage on the Iranian economy over time. However, a close examination of Iran’s wartime economic strategy shows that the Iranians are better positioned to inflict such damage on the global and American economies themselves.

Before the war, 20% of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have opened pipelines to bypass the strait, a crucial 7% still flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has now effectively closed the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates and has also signaled to its allies, the Houthis in Yemen, to prepare to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This move would result in cutting off the remaining 7% of oil that is diverted through pipelines.

Accordingly, the ability to exert extremely important leverage is increasing. What is already happening has extremely severe consequences. That is, the longer the strait remains closed, and the less oil that leaves the Middle East, the greater the damage to the global economy as well as to President Trump’s political survival. This is not accidental but inevitable.

Why Won’t Iran Give Up?

Iran’s strategic resilience is based on a simple but powerful concept: they are facing a threat to their very survival. Historical analysis shows that people facing such a threat are willing to endure enormous punishment. Considering the Second World War, just as massive strategic bombing failed to break the determination of the German and Japanese peoples, the Iranians have now demonstrated to the world that they will not abandon this struggle. Our reading is that the national unity displayed at events such as the funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini is evidence of the determination of the Iranian people.

A Forced Conclusion

Accordingly, a bleak picture emerges regarding the stated objectives of the current American administration. That is, the United States cannot win the war through bombing, nor can it win through a blockade. Likewise, it cannot win through an invasion, nor through retaliatory tit-for-tat attacks, as can now be understood from the way events are unfolding.

Accordingly, President Trump will soon be forced to return to the negotiating table. Trump will have to reach an agreement with Iran, and he has no way to avoid it. He has no way to win the war he started, and he is now engaged in playing a losing hand in the deck of cards. Continuing this will force the American economy to bear greater costs.

The US war against Iran appears to have entered a new phase, in which victory is no longer an option, and the only question remaining for the United States is how much it will lose before reaching what will most likely be a disadvantageous and unavoidable agreement.

Prepared based on the video “Washington Just Took a Massive Shock — Iran Just Did the Impossible” uploaded to YouTube by political analyst Professor Mearsheimer.

Prepared by Jeewantha Jayatissa